In my opinion, Uzbekistan can be likened to a sleepy kingdom, the possibility and real aggregate resources of which will remain unclear to the outside world until it wakes up.

However, given globalization and taking into account many factors, Uzbekistan cannot remain sleepy for a long time. Uzbekistan is rapidly approaching the beginning of political transformations.

Often Uzbekistan is mentioned in connection with violation of human rights, as a difficult and/or inconsistent partner, as a country with complex socio-economic and political issues. But first of all, it seems rational to measure main aggregate resources of Uzbekistan in order to define and understand how Uzbekistan can be useful, or harmful to those with whom Uzbekistan is friendly or hostile.

Uzbekistan is a key state in the Central Asian region. It is one of the most significant countries of the former Soviet Union, in the Turkish and Islamic world. It has the potential to significantly influence the course of events in Eurasia.

The first country in the region. The Central Asian region is a vast expanse of Asia, which includes five new independent states: Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. The total population of the five countries is approximately 65 million people. Population wise, Uzbekistan is the first biggest country in the region, and its population makes about a half of the region’s population. In the second half of 2012, it was officially announced that Uzbekistan’s population exceeded 30 million people. After Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan is the second biggest country population wise – 16.8 million people, which is half as much. The population of Tajikistan is 8 million people, then comes Kyrgyzstan – 5.6 million people, and Turkmenistan – 5.1 million.

The geographical position of Uzbekistan in Central Asia makes the country extremely important. Uzbekistan has common borders not only with all the countries of the region, but also with Afghanistan connected with railways. Without Uzbekistan’s participation, which is located in the geographic epicenter of the Central Asian region, it is difficult to formulate effective projects across the region, be it about economic, transport, energy, regional policy and geopolitics.

The second country in the Turkic world. In regard of the ethnic-linguistic composition of its population, Uzbekistan is a unique country. The titular and the largest ethnic group is Uzbeks, whose name was given to the state. In addition, Uzbekistan is home to many ethnic groups such as Tajiks, Kazakhs, and Karakalpaks. There is also a multi-million Russian diaspora in the country. The Uzbek language is one of the most common Turkic languages. According to various estimates, the total population of the Turkic-language speaking nations ranges from 200 million to 250 million people.

Population wise, Turkey is the biggest country in the Turkic-language speaking world, its population is 72 million people, Uzbekistan is the second biggest country in this regard. There are very large autochthonous ethnic groups in Iran, Russia, China and other countries, who speak Turkic languages, but they do not have their own statehoods.

Thus, with regards to population, Uzbekistan is the second biggest country in the Turkic world after Turkey. Potential of Uzbekistan increases given its resources to influence Uzbeks living in other parts of the world. Uzbekistan is the epicenter-country for Uzbeks of the world. According to various estimates, the total number of Uzbeks around the world is about 37-40 million people. In addition, large autochthonous groups of Uzbeks live in Afghanistan (3.5-4.5 million people), Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. There are established diasporas in Russia, the USA, and many other parts of the world.

The third country in the post-Soviet area. Uzbeks have been the third biggest ethnic group in the former Soviet Union after Russians and Ukrainians. Today too, Uzbekistan is the third most populous country in the post-Soviet area after Russia and Ukraine. The difference in population between Ukraine and Uzbekistan is gradually shrinking in favor of the latter.

Uzbekistan is a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the organization created after the collapse of the Soviet Union in order to maintain the degree of integration left by the former Soviet Union. Recent history has shown that the Russian Federation makes attempts to formulate many projects throughout the post-Soviet area, including the Central Asia in order to maintain and increase its own interests. However, if Uzbekistan is not interested in these projects, they are doomed to failure, or face serious difficulties.

The fifteenth state in the Islamic world. By some estimates, there are more than one and a half billion Muslims in the world. Fifty-four states, including Uzbekistan, have become members of the main organization of the Islamic world – the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.

Uzbekistan’s population is 30 million people; at least 90% of them are Sunni Muslims. Uzbekistan is on the list of the twenty countries with largest Muslim population. Population wise, Uzbekistan is the 15th biggest Muslim country; its population is bigger than those of Saudi Arabia, Yemen, China, Syria, Malaysia, Russia and Nigeria. Based on these facts, a conclusion can be drawn that Uzbekistan’s Muslim community is the largest in the Central Asian region and the former Soviet Union, and the second biggest one in the Turkic-Islamic world after Turkey.

In addition to the population weight, Uzbekistan has an impressive historical authority in the Islamic world. Many and most reputable scientists of heyday of the Islamic world originated from the territory of modern Uzbekistan, which makes the country a welcome participant of global Islamic projects.

Also, Uzbekistan is a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), in which Beijing plays the first fiddle. The SCO comprises the following six states: China, Russia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In addition to the full members, there are observer countries that have long been standing in line to enter the club led by Beijing and Moscow. It was after Uzbekistan entered the SCO that the organization changed its name from the Shanghai Five to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and turned into a regional organization.

Beijing has always has considered the official Tashkent in a special manner as a state which has potential to influence thinking and behavior of the whole of Central Asia, including such matters as rights and freedoms of Uighurs, ethnic solidarity and regional geopolitics.

It is known that Uighurs is the closest ethnic group to Uzbeks in terms of language, traditions, culture and religion.

The difference between the Uzbek and Uighur languages is ​​small; Uzbeks and Uighurs can understand each other without interpreters. The historic territory of Uighurs is Shinzhan Uygur Autonomous Region, it occupies approximately one-sixth of China’s territory. However, the official Beijing is not able to completely suppress and assimilate ethnic-religious identity of the Uighurs.

Year after year, growing ethnic and religious identity of Uighurs becomes a problem for the authorities of the PRC. In terms of localism, Beijing has not had time to assimilate Uighurs, but under the condition of globalization, which enables Uighurs have broader and broader access to the outside world, they will resist rather than get assimilated. For Beijing, it is good if pragmatic and authoritarian regimes in the Central Asian region remain as long as possible. The regimes, which have not projected ethnic-religious solidarity with the Uighurs. That was why the Shanghai Five immediately accepted Uzbekistan with great gladness.

In addition, Uzbekistan is Afghanistan’s northern neighbor. Afghanistan has three most significant neighbors – Pakistan, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Uzbekistan. Resources of the other two neighbors, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan, to influence Afghanistan are comparatively lower than those of the first three. It seems that in the coming decades, establishing a stable and effective statehood in Afghanistan will remain one of the challenges of the global community, and Uzbekistan has a certain role. In addition, Uzbeks are the third largest ethnic group in 29-million Afghanistan. According to various estimates, there are 3.5-4.5 million Uzbeks there. Naturally, Uzbeks of Afghanistan consider Tashkent, the capital of the state of Uzbeks, with reverence.

Also, Uzbekistan is a historic and vital part of the Persian world. Tajiks, who speak the Tajik language and belong to the Persian language family, are indigenous inhabitants on of the territory of Uzbekistan. De jure, they are the third biggest ethnic group of Uzbekistan, but in fact they are the second biggest group. There are five countries in the Central Asia region, and it is Uzbeks and Tajiks that have had ethnic and socio-cultural interaction most. Historically, Uzbekistan has been a peculiar bridge between the Turkic and Persian worlds.

But meanwhile, Uzbekistan strongly suppresses its Tajik identity, and this happens against the background of rejection to recognize its Turkic and Muslim identity. This ignoring becomes possible due to the nature of the political regime.

However, the processes of globalization guarantee ‘awakening of the masses’ as it is observed throughout the world. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan does not recognize and ignores its resources to influence processes in the macro-region by means of recognizing and building its identities. However, these resources will remain, and in the future they will be recalled more and more often.

It should be emphasized that what has been mentioned above are very concentrated social, geographical and geopolitical resources of the society and the state. However, underground and overground riches of Uzbekistan have not been mentioned here, which is also worthy of attention. In short, Uzbekistan has huge reserves of natural gas, gold, uranium, and there are large deposits of oil. Natural conditions in Uzbekistan are very much favorable to reap harvests twice a year.

However, despite these vast resources, Uzbekistan remains the only post-Soviet state, that causes more and more concerns and anxiety rather than participates in addressing common problems.

Islam Karimov is the unchallenged leader of the state, who has been in power since the former Soviet Union times since 1989, when Moscow appointed him the First Secretary of the Communist Party of the Uzbek Soviet Socialist Republic. Karimov, along with Nursultan Nazarbayev, the President of Kazakhstan, are unique political figures of our time, who were members of the Politburo of the Soviet Union and remain in power until today. Since then, almost a quarter century has passed. In some other countries of the former Soviet Union, five or six leaders have changed so far.

However, Uzbekistan is getting very close to the starting point of political transformations. In January 2013, Islam Karimov was 75 years old; he looks very tired. The next presidential elections are due in April 2015, when he would be 77. It is unknown whether he will run in the elections again, or whether he will pass the presidency to his successor having become the Chairperson of the Senate.

Recently, the liberal West is contemplating over the two fundamental issues around the state and the transformation of the Islamic world. The first question is whether it is appropriate to democratize Muslim countries with authoritarian regimes. The second question is if so, in what way it can be done to get effective results.

Both questions reflect bitter experience of Western countries over the past decade in Muslim countries. However, security and stable development issues in modern conditions do not imply neutral attitude to processes in any corner of the world. Uzbekistan, as mentioned above, is also a part of the former Soviet Union, the Islamic world, and most importantly, one of the most notable authoritarian countries in the world.

It is necessary to clearly understand that Uzbekistan does not have that many natural resources to permanently remain an authoritarian country. Without effective adjustment of application of human resources, Uzbekistan will not be a stable country not mentioning being a prosperous country. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan does not realize its geopolitical resources.

But the situation will change towards apprehension of its complex identity, search for friends and allies. Given above mentioned resources, geographic and geopolitical importance, Uzbekistan is one of the unique ‘hub’ countries of the global geopolitics. In other words, Uzbekistan is located in the epicenter of the global intersection of the great powers of 21th century: the USA, China, Russia and the Islamic world.

Uzbekistan has the only way, which is lining up its political system, which, on the one hand will be secular and democratic, on the other hand, the population will be provided with basic religious needs. Free functioning of democratic institutions in Uzbekistan will not lead to the internal and external policies of the country being legitimized only by Islamic values. The Uzbek society appreciates its religious identity, but this is not due to refusal of other essential needs: to live outside violence, that is freedom and prosperity. In the context of globalization, Uzbekistan cannot build a political system based on isolationism from the outside world. This means that the state and the society have the only true way – to build a secular, legitimate-democratic system, which will be provided with the basic religious needs.

In the context of Uzbekistan, Islamic identity of the society does not paralyze democratic values ​​and institutions. On the contrary, multilateral needs of the society leave no option but to seek agreement between freedom and righteousness in order to reach consensus between the security, prosperity, justice and competitiveness.

Under the ruling of Islam Karimov, Uzbekistan considers free information as a strategic enemy of the state. Authorities systematically fight with social networks, independent media, journalists, human rights activists, oppositionists. In today’s Uzbekistan, free functioning of telecommunications, Internet, media is out of the question including such means of communication as cell phones. The political regime of Islam Karimov has shown that authoritarianism has formed a political philosophy, which is doctrinally closed and is not subject to external beliefs. However, Karimov’s version of authoritarian does not have deep social, ethnic or other roots. It is not supported by any layer or class of the Uzbek society. It is designed on fears and personal opinions of Islam Karimov. Given wish, new politics of a post-Karimov period can transform the given regime.

Over the past few years, the family of Islam Karimov, in particular his eldest daughter Gulnara Karimova, has been involved in high-profile scandals linked to corruption schemes of biggest telecommunications operators in Uzbekistan , in particular, with Ucell (a TeleaSonera subsidiary), and Russian MTS. There are many such stories in the recent history of Uzbekistan. The world community, especially the world’s telecommunications companies should make conclusions that the authoritarian regime of Uzbekistan is not a stable market and a trusted partner. On the contrary, it is a source of problems.

Until now, democratic countries and organizations have tried but failed to persuade Karimov to start real liberal reforms because authoritarianism has its own, quite strong political philosophy. Mistrust, suspicion, fear prevail in Karimov’s thinking, and these are real feelings. No matter how well Islam Karimov has been informed about the real situation, no matter what experts have convinced him to go this or that way, internal beliefs and inclinations of Uzbekistan’s leader impregnated with suspicion have always remained invariable. Thus, power in modern Uzbekistan has been substantially limited to apprehend and implement regional and global projects.

A revolutionary path of transformation for the 30-million Uzbekistan is unpredictable, inefficient and dangerous. This way of development is also dangerous for the regional stability. The social stability in Uzbekistan is secured by saturation of the mass consciousness with fear, which allows suppressing a discomfort state of the society. However, an expected retirement of Islam Karimov and arrival of new politicians in power in Uzbekistan raise prospects to create conditions for implementation of strategically significant geopolitical projects.

The democratic West: the governments of Europe and the United States, most influential multinational corporations and non-governmental organizations could develop and implement a long term strategy for transformation of Uzbekistan into a stable ally of the West. Islam Karimov has been adamant to any persuasions, however, new people in power may be more realistic and pragmatic, with less fears for reforms. It seems that the main points of the Western policy to promote democratization in Uzbekistan should be the following:

First, a process of democratization must pass through the government, not bypassing it. At the same time, a strong and stable system of mutual relations must be established that the official Tashkent would not be able to terminate.

Second, intensity of democratic reforms should reflect the state of the social and economic base necessary required for stable functioning of democratic institutions.

The idea of ​​ gradual transformation of Uzbekistan into a democratic ally of the West may seem unappealing, incomprehensible, costly and even absurd. However, after Islam Karimov’s retirement, processes in Uzbekistan will proceed quite intensively. It is likely that new politicians of Uzbekistan may be people, who will be willing to carry out genuine reforms and would want to see Uzbekistan as a friend of the West. Then what will be required from the West is will for promotion, a strategy for cooperation and implementation of joint, mutually beneficial projects.

We, Uzbekistan and the West, have always been in different parts of the globe. Now, we will stay side by side, and are doomed to be either friends or foes.

Kamoliddin RABBIMOV,

analyst, the head of the LIGLIS-Center for Political Studies
registered in France, and a consultant for “Fiery Hearts Club”.
Previously, he worked as a researcher in many state institutions
of Uzbekistan, including his work for “Fiery Hearts Club”.
Earlier, he worked in many relevant government institutions.
In particular, he also worked for the Institute for Strategic
and Regional Studies under the President of Uzbekistan.